More betting predictions for the entire NFL slate after an 11-4 ATS week
- Week 13: 11 - 4
- NFL Season: 108 - 77 - 7
If you’ve been following this blog the last couple of weeks, you’re making some major moolah! I’m 23-8 in the last two weeks and my season-long record is over 58%!
Here’s the thing. After my great week 12, I was fully expecting week 13 to be a disaster. That’s kind of how it goes, you do well one week and you fall back to earth the next. Well, now that I’ve had two incredible weeks, I’m very worried about week 14! So, feel free to jump on board for this week, or feel free to completely fade me. Both options are completely reasonable.
In case you’re new here, here are the ground-rules I set for myself in this weekly quest for a perfect week of NFL betting: I can’t take heavy favorites, all odds must be less than -160, and I must bet on every single game, every single week. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
Top Five Bets for NFL Week 14
Cardinals at Giants: Giants +9.5 and Under 52 Teaser (-110)
I strayed away from this last week and it bit me in the butt. This season, if you tease the Giants and the under 6 points in every Giants game, you’d be 10-2 betting the Giants. I was taking full advantage of it earlier this year, and now I’m going back to the well.
The Giants are incredible at keeping games close, and now they’re even on a bit of a winning streak. Their defense is the real deal, allowing only 22 points per game, and for the first time in quite a while, the Giants are a well coached team. On the other side, the Cardinals are on a skid and have not looked great in recent weeks. It’s a must win game for both sides, and I expect it to be close and low scoring.
Falcons at Chargers: Chargers +3 (-121) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
The Chargers got absolutely embarrassed in week 13. I may have only gotten 4 games wrong last week, but me picking the Chargers should have counted as 5 losses with how badly they got beat. The Falcons have played much better football since Dan Quinn got fired, but I’m going with the Chargers in this one.
Teams tend to bounce back after being shut out at home. In fact, teams are 26-11 ATS after being shut out at home since 2002. Anthony Lynn is on the cusp of unemployment, and you have to think that this game is the Chargers Super Bowl. If the Falcons come into town and beat up on them, a lot of people might be losing their jobs.
Ravens at Browns: Browns +3 (-139) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
This is the Ravens third game in twelve days. Their offense looked good with the return of Lamar and the running backs against the Cowboys, but that’s the Cowboys. That’s hardly an NFL defense. The Ravens defense had trouble containing Andy Dalton and the Cowboys, and I feel like they’re going to be tired going into week 14.
The Browns on the other hand look the best they’ve looked all season. They demolished the Titans last week. The score looked close, but that game was over by the end of the first half. The running game is working, Baker actually looks like an above average quarterback, and with Myles Garrett back, they have a legitimate pass rush. I’ll take the Browns at home with the points.
Packers at Lions: Packers -7 (-121) [BetMGM]
If there’s one thing the Packers are good at, it’s taking care of business against bad teams. We saw it last week against the Eagles, we saw it the week before against the Bears. Aaron Rodgers loves the opportunity to put up points against a bad defense.
The Lions, despite their win on Sunday, are a really bad team. They allow nearly 30 points per game, which is second worst in the league only behind the Cowboys, and over 395 yards per game, which is 5th worst in the league. They came together to win one in honor of firing Matt Patricia last week, but the Packers should clobber this team and put up a ton of points.
Jets at Seahawks: Over 42.5 (-135) [Borgata]
The Seahawks are nearly 14 point favorites in this game and I can’t bring myself to lay that many points on a team that doesn’t really blow teams out. So I’m rooting for a shootout in Seattle on Sunday.
As of right now, the weather forecast says there’s possible light rain, and if the weather stays in that condition, I love getting the number at 42.5. These are two terrible defenses. Like historically bad defenses. The Jets allow nearly 30 points per game, and the Seahawks allow over 407 yards per game. I don’t expect the Jets to go crazy on offense, but if they can do their part and get 14 or 17 points, I don’t see how this stays below the number. I will be keeping track of the weather as the week goes on!
NFL Week 14 - Rapid Fire Picks
Patriots at Rams: Rams -3 (129) [BetMGM]
As a Rams fan, I’m terrified of this game. But I think the Patriots spread is a little inflated due to their stomping of the Chargers last week, so I’ll buy a point and get the Rams as a field goal favorite in what could very possibly be a trap game.
Broncos at Panthers: Panthers -3 (-110) [FanDuel Sportsbook]
Before their week 13 bye, the Panthers were one of the more exciting teams to watch in the second half of the season. The Broncos surprised me with how close they played the Chiefs last week, but I think with a week of rest and preparation, the Panthers should be able to take this game at home.
Texans at Bears: Texans +3 (-143) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
I was so excited to pick the Texans this week, expecting them to be an underdog, but then I saw that they’re a pick em’ with the Bears! So I’m buying a few points on the Texans side for insurance, but with how terrible the Bears are, the Texans have a great opportunity to win this one outright.
Cowboys at Bengals: Cowboys -2.5 (-121) [Unibet]
Even though they ended up losing by 17 points on Tuesday night, this Cowboys team showed something against the Ravens. I guess I should clarify, they showed something on offense. Their defense showed absolutely nothing. The Bengals should get Joe Mixon back this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run all over this dreadful Cowboys defense.
Edit: It’s Sunday morning and Joe Mixon is not going to play. I’ll switch over to the Cowboys who should be able to shut down the Bengals pass game with Brandon Allen.
Titans at Jaguars: Over 50.5 (-129) [BetMGM]
The Titans are over machines, scoring nearly 30 points per game, and the Jaguars defense is allowing over 29 points per game. It’s going to be a beautiful day in Jacksonville, so I’ll take the over with the two bad defenses and one great offense.
Chiefs at Dolphins: Dolphins +8 (-110) [Borgata]
The Chiefs are laying too big of a number on the road, and the Dolphins have been part of extremely low scoring games since Tua took over at Quarterback. The Dolphins last four games they’ve allowed 7, 3, 20, and 21 points. I think the Chiefs win, but I think the Dolphins can keep this game close and I’ll take them with the points.
Vikings at Buccaneers: Vikings +8.5 (-139) [Fanduel Sportsbook]
What do you get when you put arguably the best running back in the NFL against the best run defense in the NFL? We’re going to find out this weekend. The Bucs are a little fraudulent to me, and as long as Bruce Arians keeps giving touches to Leonard Fournette over Ronald Jones, I don’t think they’ll reach their offensive potential.
Colts at Raiders: Colts -2 (-115) [William Hill]
The Raiders have been a straight up bad football team the last two weeks. They got blown out by the Falcons and then should have lost to the Jets. Luckily, sleeper agent Gregg Williams gave the game away on the last play. The Colts should be much bigger favorites than the -2 I got them at.
Saints at Eagles: Eagles +14 and Under 49.5 Teaser (-110)
Taysom Hill might actually be a good NFL quarterback. He looks like a better version of Lamar Jackson, and the Saints defense is the real deal. With Jalen Hurts getting his first start, I expect the Saints to force some mistakes and get a pretty easy win against a terrible Eagles team. That being said, the Eagles are just good enough to keep games close, and with these offenses operating with their backup quarterbacks, I'll tease the under with the Eagles grabbing two touchdowns.
Washington Football Team at 49ers: Football Team +4 (-122) [FanDuel Sportsbook]
It took a while, but the NFC East is finally here to play! This division race between the Giants and the Football Team is basically giving us playoff games every week for the rest of the season. The Football Team is in a must win situation, and the 49ers are essentially out of it, so I’ll take the team with more on the line.
Steelers at Bills: Steelers +3 (-121) [Borgata]
I will always take a good team the week after a tough loss. The Steelers are underdogs, probably due to the fact that the Football Team fully exploited their weaknesses last week, but this feels like a great chance to bounce back offensively against a porous Bills defense.
And that’s all she wrote for week 14! In this case, she is me! 16 games, 16 opportunities to not have a perfect week, but 16 matchups of the sport I love being played to distract us from this awful pandemic. Enjoy the football, and as always, bet responsibly!