Best bets for the entire NFL Slate this week.
That was absolutely one of the most frustrating weeks of NFL betting I’ve had in awhile. The Eagles tied? The Lions beat the Cardinals? The Falcons gave up ANOTHER 16 point lead in the 4th quarter?! And don’t get me started on that Rams pass interference call. Despite all of these bad beats, I didn’t lose too much money, going 7-9. It could’ve been a really good week, but that’s how sports gambling works sometimes!
All that being said, you have to love how many points are being scored this year. The over is 29-19 on the year, hitting at over 60%. There’s less penalties being called, down to 11.8 per game from 13.48 per game last year, and teams are running more plays per game this season than any other season. Oddsmakers will no doubt adjust based on this info, so we might see a swing toward the under in the coming weeks. Or maybe we’ll keep getting 70 point games!
In case you're new here, here are the ground-rules I set for myself in this weekly quest for a perfect week of NFL betting: I can’t take heavy favorites, all odds must be less than -160, and I must bet on every single game, every single week.
- Week 3 Record: 7 - 9
- NFL Season Record: 26-20-2, +4.5u
NFL Week 4 Picks
Browns at Cowboys: Cowboys -4 (-105) [BetMGM]
The NFC East is 2-9-1 against the spread so far this year. Some may see that as a negative trend, I just see that as them being due for some covers. If we’re going to look at that trend, we might as well look at the Browns recent record in away games: The Browns are 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games away from Cleveland. The Cowboys are also 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games. There’s not much to glean here from these trends, so I’m going with what I’ve seen on the field this year.
The Cowboys offense is one of the best in the NFL, and their defense is arguably one of the worst, but I don’t think the Browns are the team you want to take in a shootout. Sure, the Cowboys will give up points. They don’t care. Dak Prescott has thrown for 922 yards in the last 2 games. The Cowboys are like an amateur boxer that just throws haymakers and never protects their face; extremely fun to watch and impossible not to root for. The Browns have beaten two bad teams and the Cowboys have stayed in tight games against the Rams and the Seahawks. I’m taking the team that has shown me more this year in the Cowboys.
Cardinals at Panthers: Cardinals -3 (-107) [BetMGM]
The Cardinals burned me badly last week in that loss to the Lions, but I’m not giving up hope on this team. Kyler Murray made a ton of mistakes, and as a young QB, that happens. He’s looking at a prime spot for a bounce back game against an abysmal Panthers defense.
When I look at this game, all I need to see is each team’s 3rd down defense. The Panthers are allowing opponents to convert on 57% of third downs, while the Cardinals are allowing opponents to convert on 29%. The Cardinals turned it over 3 times and lost in week 3, the Panthers forced 3 turnovers and won in week 3. If the Cardinals can limit their mistakes, they should easily cover here.
Seahawks at Dolphins: Seahawks -5.5 (-114) [Unibet]
The Dolphins killed the Jaguars on Thursday night and they’ve had a long week to prepare for the league's worst defense in the Seahawks, who are traveling cross country for an early game in Miami. Did I convince you to take the Dolphins +6.5 there? I hope not, because I’m betting on the Seahawks and I’m not going to stop betting on this team until they let me down.
Sure, their defense is absolutely horrendous. They’re giving up nearly 500 yards per game and they have injury concerns. Who cares? How can you watch Russell Wilson lead this offense and care one bit about how bad their defense is? They’ll find a way to win, and they’ll find a way to cover. I know we all had a little bit of a scare last week after DK Metcalf decided to DeSean Jackson that ball into the endzone, but the Seahawks still managed to cover against the Cowboys. The Dolphins are admittedly a better team than they probably get credit for, but they also have injuries on defense and they give up 400 yards per game themselves! I’m trusting Russell Wilson here to continue his MVP season and secure me the cover.
Broncos at Jets: Under 42.5 (-134) [BetMGM]
Another gross Thursday night matchup. This line opened on Sunday night at Broncos -3 and now you can get it at Broncos +2. It could be because Brett Rypien was announced as the starting QB on Tuesday, but I don’t really understand this line movement. Both of these teams are awful and if it weren’t for this blog, I wouldn’t even be touching this game with my hard earned money. But alas, we’re here for the perfect week, and I must make a pick.
I’ve bet the under on the Jets every single game this year, and I’ve gone 2-1. Why stop now? The total is set at 40, but I’ll buy 2 extra points and take Under 42.5 at -134 on BetMGM. The Jets have scored a total of 37 points in 3 games. The Broncos have scored a total of 45 points in 3 games. If they stick to their pace, this should be a 15-12 game, but with how many injuries each team has on defense, I could see these teams exploding for 17 or even 20 points. It's going to be a bad game, but after the debate on Tuesday, I'll happily enjoy sweating out an under on two terrible teams.
Ravens at Football Team: Ravens -12 (-121) [BetMGM]
I can’t believe I’m laying 12 points on a road team here, but I don’t see any alternative. I thought about teasing this line down to 7 with the over, but I don’t honestly know how many points the Washington Football Team will score on the angry Ravens. Instead, I bought a point for the Ravens bring the total down to 12, because as of right now this line sits at Ravens -13.
The Ravens lost on Monday night, and people are starting to question Lamar Jackson’s performance in big games. I think the Ravens come out of that Monday night game mad and looking to blow Washington out. Dwayne Haskins is a disaster and the Ravens defense is better than what they showed last week. Any hope the Washington Football Team had of dominating on the defensive line might have gone out the window with Chase Young and Matt Ioannidis out this week. I’m horrified of a backdoor cover here, but hopefully Haskins has another three interception performance to help seal the deal.
Colts at Bears: Colts -2.5 (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
The Colts have yet to play a good team, but neither have the Bears! The Colts defense has been dominant, but those performances were against the Jets, Jaguars and Vikings. The Bears on the other hand have squeaked out wins against the Lions, Giants and Falcons, winning by 4 points in each of those games.
Here’s what it comes down to for me: The Colts have handled their business against bad teams. They destroyed the Jets in week 3 and they beat the Vikings by 17 points in week 2. I’ve been betting against the Bears all year and they keep pulling off these stupid wins and screwing me, but I’m not stopping now. The Bears are a bad team! And this is the week it’s finally going to bite them! And if they pull off the win here, I’ll take the Bears next week as punishment.
Jaguars at Bengals: Over 47.5 (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
Cincinnati isn’t getting any pressure with their pass rush, the Jaguars defense hasn’t done anything, and both these teams seem to be favoring the pass, especially with DJ Chark set to return to action this week. I can’t quite pinpoint who I think will win this game. The Bengals seem to be improving week after week and the Jaguars are a total wildcard.
Neither of these teams are high flying offenses, but this pick is more an indictment on the defenses. Both teams are in the bottom half of the NFL in yards per game allowed and points per game allowed. You've got two playmaking quarterbacks and two mediocre defenses. Give me the over.
Saints at Lions: Saints -3 (-110) [BetMGM]
I’m still in utter disbelief that the Lions won last week. What a meltdown by the Cardinals offense and Kyler Murray. I will admit, the Lions look like a different team with Kenny Golladay on the field, but I don’t think they’ll have as easy of a time against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints this week.
The biggest question of this game is whether or not Michael Thomas will return. The Saints are also a totally different team with their number one receiving threat on the field, and if he plays and he’s even 80% effective, the Saints should be favored by more than this number.
Vikings at Texans: Texans -3.5 (-110) [FanDuel Sportsbook]
I don't have a lot of options with this game. With all the uncertainty of COVID-19 and the outbreak that the Vikings week 3 opponents had, there aren't any alternate lines on the market right now. So I'm keeping it simple.
Both of these teams are 0-3, but it's obvious which team has been more competitive. Add to that fact that the Texans have had the hardest start to a schedule I can ever remember a team having, and you've got a recipe for the Texans to come out and torch this lackluster Vikings defense.
Chargers at Buccaneers: Buccaneers -1 and Over 36.5 Teaser (-110) [William Hill]
I wanted to just take the over outright here, but the Chargers have yet to score more than 20 points in a game, and the Bucs defense looks pretty solid against mediocre teams. I also am not in love with taking the Bucs -7 here, so I revisit my old friend, the tease! I’m 2-1 on teasers so far this year and I’m 3-0 on my Bucs picks, so beware of this teaser, because it almost seems too good to be true!
Steelers at Titans: N/A
Check back once we know the NFL's plan for this game.
Giants at Rams: Rams -10 (-143) [BetMGM]
The Giants didn’t enter the red zone on offense and didn’t force a punt on defense in their week 3 shellacking from the injury riddled 49ers. The Rams had a dominant second half against the Bills that ended in disgusting fashion with a bad call from the refs.
Side note: I’m tired of the Rams games being so poorly officiated. In week 1 we had the controversy with the Michael Gallup touchdown that was called back for pass interference. That was a makeup call from when the refs didn’t call roughing the passer on Jared Goff’s interception earlier in the game. In week 3, the refs made a bad call and gave the Rams an interception that they didn’t deserve, and then they gave the Bills the makeup call in the 4th quarter to give them the win. Refs, stop messing up and having to double back on the makeup calls. Just get it right the first time, you absolute dolts.
Sorry about the rant. I’m taking the Rams -10, which I found on BetMGM on Wednesday afternoon. Most books have the Rams at -13, but BetMGM is hooking it up right now with this spread not costing too much juice. The Giants are awful, the Rams have looked good (other than that first half against the Bills). I also suggest everyone take my Rams bets with a grain of salt, as I am a Rams fan with too much faith in the team.
Bills at Raiders: Bills -3 (-105) [William Hill]
Josh Allen and Sean McDermott are incredible against the spread when on the road. McDermott is 14-9-2 against the spread, and Josh Allen is 9-3-2 against the spread as the visiting team. Not only that, but this Bills team is for real. I watched them decimate my Rams last week, and although I disagree with the way that game ended (lost my voice screaming at the game), the Bills deserved the win more than the Rams did.
Josh Allen is playing like an MVP candidate, and the Raiders defense hasn’t proven that they can stop anyone besides an 80 year old Drew Brees without Michael Thomas in week 2.
Patriots at Chiefs: Chiefs -1 and Under 58.5 Teaser (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
I don’t feel comfortable laying 7 points against any team led by Bill Belichick, so I’m teasing this one down. I think the Chiefs will win this game, but their spread was a little inflated by their big Monday night win against Baltimore. I'd consider taking the over in this game straight up, but I’m definitely happy taking over 46.5 with two teams averaging over 30 points per game.
Edit: My initial pick was Chiefs -1 and Over 46.5, but then the Cam news broke on Saturday. I've amended the pick to take the under as I don't see the Patriots having much success on offense.
Eagles at 49ers: 49ers -6.5 (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
Carson Wentz is bad. He’s a bad quarterback. I know he has virtually no weapons to throw to, but my God. Nothing makes me happier as a Rams fan than seeing the guy in the Goff draft class that everyone thought should have been the number 1 overall pick absolutely blow it. I’m loving this.
And now the Eagles most reliable receiving option, Dallas Goedert, is going on the IR! You can’t just throw the ball 20 times to Zach Ertz, so what are these Eagles going to do? On the flip side, the 49ers should be getting back Jimmy G and George Kittle, but I don’t even know if that matters. This Eagles team is terrible, the NFC East is terrible, and I’m fading them until further notice.
Falcons at Packers: Over 54.5 (-132) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
Dan Quinn still has a job! What on earth is going on?! I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, Dan Quinn has blackmail on Arthur Blank. There is no other reason for this man to still be a head coach. Two weeks in a row! And last week I was dumb enough to bet on them, knowing full well that Dan Quinn can’t hold a lead to save his life!
I have to take the over here. Both of these teams are 3-0 hitting the over this year, the Packers average over 40 points per game and the Falcons average 30 points per game. The Falcons defense is banged up, and they give up 36 points per game! The Packers should have an absolute field day here, and it’s tempting to not just take Packers -7. But let's have some fun with this Monday night game and hope for a shootout!
There you have it folks, picks for every week 4 NFL game. Is this the week I go 16-0? Hit me up on twitter at @steveclark217 to let me know. See you next week when I'm a millionaire!
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