NFL Betting Picks from our expert analyst who went 12-4 ATS last week
In case you’re new here, here are the ground-rules I set for myself in this weekly quest for a perfect week of NFL betting: I can’t take heavy favorites, all odds must be less than -160, and I must bet on every single game, every single week. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
- Week 12: 12 - 4
- NFL Season: 97 - 73 - 7
NFL Week 13 Best Bets - Top 5
Saints at Falcons: Under 50.5 (-134) [BetMGM]
The Falcons shocked me last week with how well they played against the Raiders, and I don’t fully trust the Saints right now with Taysom Hill at QB, so I’m going to go with the point total here in a game that I could see going either way.
This pick is predicated mostly on the fact that the Saints defense has shown up to play since Drew Brees got injured. They allowed only 9 points to this Falcons team two weeks ago and 3 points to the Quarterback-less Broncos last week. Also, Taysom Hill is not a QB that leads a high flying offense. The Saints have turned into an old school team that runs the ball and plays good defense, and for that reason I’m expecting a low scoring game.
Lions at Bears: Lions +4 (-110) [William Hill]
Another team has fired their head coach! We’ve seen this twice already this year with the Texans and the Falcons. What did both of those teams do after getting rid of their head coaches? They won big. In the Texans first game without Bill O’Brien, they beat the Jaguars 30-14, and in the Falcons first game without Dan Quinn they beat the Vikings 40-23. So why the hell not? Let’s ride this train.
Also, the Bears are terrible. Like an embarrassment. Remember when they were 5-1 a couple months ago? They don’t have a starting caliber quarterback! Their best offensive weapon, Allen Robinson, desperately wants to get out of Chicago, and this team is all but out of the playoff hunt. Give me the new look Lions with hopefully their full set of healthy offensive weapons.
Bills at 49ers: Bills -2.5 (-114) [Unibet]
I know the 49ers just beat the Rams, so a lot of you out there might be thinking, “are they the real deal? Can they take down the Bills this week?” The answer, at least I think, is no. The 49ers always beat the Rams. They are the Rams kryptonite. Similarly to how the Rams are always competitive with the Seahawks, the 49ers will always play competitive games against the Rams.
So with that NFC West fan insider knowledge, I’m taking the Bills to beat the 9ers. The 49ers don’t have a home. They were kicked out of their own city, and after the Bills pound them on Monday, they’ll be kicked out of their new home in Arizona. The 9ers are still without their starting Quarterback, their generational Tight End, and they have like 90 players on IR. I finally broke my terrible streak of Monday night picks last week, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Colts at Texans: Colts -2.5 (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
The Colts are coming off a crushing loss and the Texans are coming off a dominant win that got Matt Patricia fired. If you’ve been following this blog for a while, you know that I like to bet on good teams coming off of losses, and that’s why I’m backing the Colts in this one.
The Texans have looked competent in the last month or so, but the Colts desperately need to win to stay in the playoff hunt, and with DeForest Buckner, Jonathan Taylor and Ryan Kelly potentially coming back for this game, they’ll be able to run and stop the run a bit better. The Texans rush defense continues to be one of the worst in the league, so with more depth at running back and their Pro Bowl interior lineman back, the Colts should be able to run the clock and let their defense bounce back against a Will Fuller-less Texans offense.
Eagles at Packers: Packers -2.5 and Over 40.5 Teaser (-110)
The week of Thanksgiving, I found myself extremely thankful that I had the Seahawks at -4 against the Eagles on Monday night. Degenerate twitter was ablaze with people either crying or celebrating the Eagles ridiculous backdoor cover on the closing line at -6.5. If you see a number you like early in the week, make sure you snag it.
The Eagles are definitely that weird team that you can always expect to keep games close. For that reason, I’m teasing the Packers down to -2.5, and I’m teasing the over because the Packers offense has been red hot all season long. They average nearly 32 points per game, and while Philadelphia’s offense is nothing special, they’ve shown the ability to score in garbage time like we saw last week.
NFL Week 13 Picks - Rapid Fire
Bengals at Dolphins: Dolphins -5 and Under 49.5 Teaser (-110)
This spread is a bit too big for my liking, so I’m teasing the Dolphins number down. With the Bengals using a backup quarterback, and assuming they don’t return a kick for a touchdown again like last week, I don’t think they’ll be able to put many points on the board.
Browns at Titans: Browns +7 (-125) [Borgata]
Derrick Henry is an absolute freak, and now that we’re in the last part of the season, he’s just going to punish the opposition. On the other side, Nick Chubb is a freak as well, and he’s got fresh legs after sitting out half of the season. I think this game stays close, and I can’t bring myself to lay a touchdown in a matchup that seems so even.
Jaguars at Vikings: Jaguars +9.5 (-110) [BetMGM]
The Vikings salvaged their season with that 1 point win against the Panthers, but they didn’t look like a team that deserves to be 10 point favorites against a scrappy Jaguars team. The Jaguars have kept games weirdly close lately, so i’ll take them with double digit points.
Raiders at Jets: Jets +8 (-110) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
The Raiders really screwed me last week. That was honestly one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen. I certainly can’t trust them to be huge favorites on the road, so against my better judgement, I’m taking the Jets with the points.
Football Team at Steelers: Football Team +10 (-121) [FanDuel Sportsbook]
This Steelers team is definitely the worst 11-0 team of all time. I’m not saying they’re bad or anything, but they’re not good enough to be undefeated in December. The Football Team has shown an ability to stay in close games, and with the Steelers coming off a short week, I think Washington keeps this within 10 points.
Rams at Cardinals: Rams -2.5 (-110) [Borgata]
The Rams laid an egg last week against the 49ers, but as I said in the 49ers blurb, that wasn’t too surprising for anyone who has followed the Rams both this season and in seasons past. The Rams are a better team than the way they played on Sunday, and I’m expecting a bounce back performance from the offense against the Cardinals.
Giants at Seahawks: Seahawks -8 (-139) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
Ordinarily I would be teasing this Giants number and taking the under, which is a strategy that has worked incredible well in Giants games in the past, but with Daniel Jones out, I’m trusting this Seahawks team to bury Colt McCoy and win by more than a touchdown.
Patriots at Chargers: Chargers +3 (-149) [BetMGM]
This is the most juice I’ve ever put on a bet in this blog series, but I honestly have no idea which way this game is going to go. The Patriots are a complete anomaly and I’m having a terrible time tracking them. I bought the Chargers up to +3 and I’m just going to hope that Anthony Lynn can somehow win head to head against Bill Belichick.
Broncos at Chiefs: Chiefs -10 (-143) [BetMGM]
The Broncos should have an actual quarterback in this game, but this Chiefs team is absolutely rolling. Despite the final score, the Chiefs dominated the Bucs last week and I expect more of the same this week against the Broncos. I bought their spread down to a more reasonable number, but I would take them up to -12.
Cowboys at Ravens: Under 48 (-125) [Borgata]
Lamar should be activated today (I’m writing this entry on Sunday), but even with the Ravens having almost all their offensive weapons back, they haven’t practiced in nearly two weeks. The Ravens defense is stout and should be able to hold the Cowboys to few points, so I’ll take the under.
There it is! The perfect week of NFL bets! Again, I’m coming off a 12-4 week so I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if this week I went 6-10, so proceed with caution. Or, if you’re a true fan of the blog, jump in and put your full trust in me. This is my best chance at getting a perfect week for the rest of the season because this is the last week with byes, so let’s ride baby!
As always, if you hate my picks or love my picks, hit me up on twitter @steveclark217. Enjoy the football, and bet responsibly!