NFL picks for every game on the week 12 schedule
- Week 11: 5-8-1
- NFL Season: 85 - 69 - 7
I’m not going to lie about last week, it was rough. The worst week I’ve had this year I’m pretty sure. I took an absolute bath with my Dolphins pick (ended up betting Dolphins 1H and Dolphins -3), and was really just not seeing the board well at all. Add on to that that I got yet another Monday Night Football game wrong, bringing my season record on Monday Night to an astounding 2-10. Truly unbelievable stuff.
But hey, it’s Thanksgiving. We need to be positive and give thanks to the positive things that happened last week. Something I can be thankful for is this: I bet on the Jets and they covered! Let’s go Jets! Everyone thought I was crazy, but look at me now! I’m a genius! A genius!
All in all, it was a bad week of betting. But you have to experience the lows of sports betting to truly appreciate the highs. If you had a rough week, do as I do: learn from your mistakes (the Patriots actually aren’t that good), get up and try again! We’re going for a perfect week, baby!
In case you’re new here, here are the ground-rules I set for myself in this weekly quest for a perfect week of NFL betting: I can’t take heavy favorites, all odds must be less than -160, and I must bet on every single game, every single week. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
NFL Week 12 Best Bets - Top 5
Texans at Lions: Texans -1.5 (-125) [BetMGM]
I thought for sure the Lions would have an edge on Thanksgiving day, considering they’ve played every Thanksgiving for the past 85 years, but no. Just like any other day, the Lions are incredibly mediocre on Thanksgiving too. They’re 6-14 in the last 20 years, and 0-2 with Matt Patricia.
The Texans run defense is brutally bad, giving up nearly 160 yards on the ground per game, but with D’Andre Swift out, I’m not overly concerned with a 65 year old Adrian Peterson running wild on Houston. What this really comes down to is whether or not Kenny Golladay plays for the Lions. If he can’t play, give me the Texans all day. If he ends up playing, I might switch over to a Lions team with their best offensive weapon.
Ravens at Steelers: Under 45.5 (-125) [Borgata]
I really don’t know which side to pick in this game. Are the Ravens bad? Are the Steelers really deserving of being 10-0? I don’t have those answers, and so I’m going to go with the total in this divisional rivalry.
The Ravens defense, who I thought was an elite group in the first part of the year, has really fallen off in recent weeks. They gave up 30 points to the Titans last week and 23 points to the Patriots a couple weeks ago in a torrential downpour. They only allow 20 points per game on the season, but in a tough divisional matchup like this, I could see the scoring going back and forth. Both defenses look good on paper, but we also have to consider that the Ravens score an average of 27 points per game and the Steelers score an average of 30 points per game. With a number this low, I had to take the over.
Edit: With so many offensive players out for both teams due to COVID, I'll switch to the under. I'd be surprised if this game even happens on Tuesday.
Raiders at Falcons: Raiders -2 (-125) [BetMGM]
I really thought the Falcons had a chance to win outright against the Saints last week, and boy was I wrong. It just goes to show that the Falcons can not be trusted. The Raiders played basically exactly how I expected them to play last week, so I’m picking the team I can trust more than this wildcard Falcons team.
The Raiders offense is rolling this year, scoring nearly 29 points per game. The running game is working, the passing game is working, and the Derek Carr relationship with Jon Gruden has gone from “just talking” to full on “we’re engaged!”. The Raiders are firmly in the playoff hunt while the Falcons are… not. I love the Raiders here even though they’re on the road.
Giants at Bengals: Giants -4 (-121) [BetMGM]
Joe Burrow going down is bad for football, but great for betting. He was the type of Quarterback who could keep his team in games they had no business being in. Now that Brandon Allen is coming in to lead this Bengals team, I don’t think they stand a chance against a Giants team that is better than their record shows.
I’ve loved betting on the Giants all year long because they’re great at keeping games close. I don’t remember the last time they were the favorite though, so laying a number with them feels kind of dirty. Regardless, their defense is playing incredibly well, and their offense has been clicking a bit more recently. Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow and a couple offensive linemen are out, and while this game won’t be pretty, I think the Giants pull out a win and a cover.
Dolphins at Jets: Dolphins -6 (-125) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
What happened to the Jets consistently being double digit underdogs? What, because they covered against the Chargers now they’re only a touchdown dog against a Dolphins team that looked incredible up until last week? I don’t really understand this line, but then again, I didn’t understand why the Dolphins were only 3 point favorites against the Broncos last week and look where that got me!
The Dolphins are in the playoff hunt and are coming off a really bad loss. This is a perfect bounce back spot for them against the worst team in the NFL. The Jets only lost to the Chargers by one score last week, so that was their version of winning the Superbowl. I bet on the Jets to cover last week, but I can’t in good conscience do that to myself two weeks in a row.
NFL Week 12 Picks - Rapid Fire
Football Team at Cowboys: Football Team +3.5 (-120) [William Hill]
I’m not ready to trust the Cowboys yet even though they beat a red hot Vikings team last week. The Football Team showed they’re more than capable of beating the pulp out of a team with their backup QB after dismantling the Bengals in the second half last week, so I think they can win outright, or at worst keep this game close against the Cowboys.
Cardinals at Patriots: Cardinals -1.5 (-110) [Borgata]
The Patriots aren’t good. I think my opinion changes on them every single week, but you can’t lose to the Texans in a must win game and be considered a good team. The Cardinals have more to play for, and they’re coming off a bad loss, so I’m picking them to bounce back in this one.
Chargers at Bills: Bills -3 (-130) [BetMGM]
I love the Chargers, but I can’t see them beating a Bills team coming off their bye week. Austin Ekeler is supposed to return to action, but in his first game back, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was eased into the game script. If the total of this game wasn’t so high I’d be all about the over, but I have enough confidence in the Bills to win that I’ll take them laying the points.
Panthers at Vikings: Panthers +10.5 and Under 57 Teaser (-110)
Where did this Panthers defense come from?! They kept the Lions out of the red zone the entire game last week and shut them out! I don’t expect them to do the same to the Vikings team coming off a tough loss, but the Panthers have proven that they are a scrappy team that can stay close in games. I was able to tease this number past a couple of key numbers, and I’ll take the under, especially if Bridgewater has to miss more time.
Browns at Jaguars: Browns -5 (-129) [Borgata]
There’s a chance it rains yet again for this Browns game! If it does end up raining in Jacksonville, you have to feel great about taking the Browns here. They’ve been excellent at pounding the rock, and bad weather only makes them do that more. The Jags have been scrappy, but the Browns have the playoffs in their sights for the first time in like 14 years. Every game is a playoff game for them, and I think they dispose of this Jaguars team fairly easily.
Titans at Colts: Titans +6 (-139) [BetMGM]
Remember when these two teams played two weeks ago and I took the Titans? Well, I’m doing it again! The Colts are a great team, but in a division rivalry where I’m able to get 6 points with a team I think is just as good, I’ll take the 6 points. Also, I don’t learn from my mistakes and I’m a glutton for punishment.
Saints at Broncos: Saints -6 (-121) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
Oh boy I hate this game. I can’t get a good read on this Saints team yet with Taysom Hill at Quarterback, so I’ll tease the Broncos to nearly two touchdowns and take the under with a stout Saints defense.
Edit: As of Saturday, the Broncos have no quarterbacks for the game tomorrow due to COVID, so I was able to lock in the Saints at -6 on Draftkings.
49ers at Rams: 49ers +8 (-130) [Unibet]
This is a total trap game for the Rams. They’ve looked too good the last couple of weeks, and I expect nothing less than the 49ers coming into LA to ruin their hot streak. The NFC West is a crazy division, and I have admittedly been terrible at betting on the Rams, but I don’t feel comfortable going into this game.
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Buccaneers +10 and Over 49 Teaser (-110)
Bounce back time for Tom Brady! Remember when the Bucs lost to the Saints a few weeks ago? What did they do the next week? They put up 46 points on the Panthers. Obviously, this Chiefs defense is way better than the Panthers defense, but Tom Brady is a little baby that can’t stand losing and I think he keeps this game close. The Chiefs can score at will, and the Bucs will need to keep up, so I’m also teasing the over in this game.
Bears at Packers: Packers -7 (-143) [Draftkings Sportsbook]
The Bears are terrible and the Packers are coming off a heartbreaking loss. This seems like a recipe for a big Aaron Rodgers game. Then again, I’m abysmal at betting primetime games, so take this with a grain of salt.
Seahawks at Eagles: Seahawks -4 (-115) [FanDuel Sportsbook]
Oh boy. Monday Night Football. My kryptonite. I’m 2-10 picking Monday night games this year. How is that even possible?! If the Seahawks don’t cover this spread, I’m officially giving up. I’ll start flipping a coin for Monday night games and I guarantee I’ll get a better record. Come on you stupid Seahawks, redeem me!
There you have it ladies and germs, a perfect week of NFL betting! If you want to let me know how bad my picks are, hit me up on twitter @steveclark217. If I go 16-0 this week it truly will be a Thanksgiving miracle, and prove once and for all that the settlers of the United States did nothing wrong when they took over indigenous lands. Enjoy Thanksgiving, enjoy football, and as always, bet responsibly!