The payout on Parasite tumbles as surprising Awards Season heats up.
Friday saw a big win for Parasite at the Ace Eddie Awards. But the weekend celebrations continued around Hollywood as the PGA Awards rewarded 1912 with their main prize. Meanwhile Parasite took home Best Ensemble, considered the main award, at the SAG Awards on Sunday. Let’s look at the odds fallout and examine what these awards could mean when it comes to making picks for your Oscars betting and pools. This is how you get the edge on your office mates or find value at your sportsbook.
1912 remains the Best Picture Oscars betting favorite.
But, as I predicted on TPN earlier in the weekend, the SAG win for Parasite has moved its Best Picture odds from +500 all the way up to +275. That $275 win on a $100 bet might just be the best number you will get on Parasite in the Best Picture category from here on out. The +500 payout is not likely to be back.
1912 is still the shortest odds to win at -167, due entirely to the PGA award, viewed as the most predictive precursor to a Best Picture trophy for a film. It’s hard to remember but going into this weekend, neither of these films were the favorite. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was. That film now sits at the third slot on the Draftkings board, at +450.
If you do still believe in ‘Hollywood’, and feel it could build steam at the upcoming DGA, WGA and BAFTA Awards, now might be the time to take a shot at Best picture for that $450 on a $100 bet. However, that is only if you still believe in Quentin’s love letter to 1960’s Hollywood. Because if you go by this weekend’s score-card, then you know this thing is coming down to 1912 v Parasite.
The WGA, DGA and BAFTA Awards are going to be rolling out in the next 10 days.
Pay close attention to those. Why? Because wins for either of these films are more likely to help the odds move than “losses” are to hurt them. Meaning, if 1912 wins the DGA and the BAFTA, it will probably move up to be a heavier favorite for Best Picture. 1912 is not predicted to win the WGA Award, so a loss there won’t negatively affect its Oscars hopes. But a win will be more icing on the cake for Best Picture.
A win for Parasite at the WGAs would be a massive boost for its Best Picture chances. Especially since foreign films rarely, if ever, win that award. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, it should be noted, is not nominated for a WGA because Quentin Tarantino is not a member of the Writer’s Guild.
The DGA Award, being announced next weekend, could completely shift the Best Director’s odds.
Sam Mendes is now the favorite for Best Director at -230 with Bong Joon Ho second in the Draftkings Odds at +200. If Bong, or even Tarantino or Scorsese wins the DGA Award, look for them to move to at least even money. Mendes will still be a contender and maybe even the favorite, but his odds could go down.
The BAFTA Awards will cause an Oscars line shift too.
If the British Academy Film Awards continue to bring wins the way of 1917, look for that to remain a steady favorite for Best Picture. However any big wins for Parasite could completely shift the odds in the other direction. So, If you like Parasite or Bong Joon Ho as winners in their categories at the Oscars, then this is the week to bet them.
When you consider that 1917 is a British Film and Mendes is a British Director, it makes it all the more expected that the film will shine at the British Academy Awards. That means It won’t necessarily spell doom for Parasite at the Oscars. The question is where will Parasite strike, in Best Director, Best Picture, or both?
Scott Yager is an entertainment analyst and cohost of the Challenge Mania podcast. This year he is tracking the Oscars news you need to know for betting and pools at The Props Network.
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