Tony Bruno Week 4 Sunday Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks
For the fourth straight week, I head into Sunday coming off a Thursday Night Football win and look to stay hot. Hard to believe the season is almost 1/4 over.
For some teams, it may already be; for others, a chance to save any hopes of post season action. Let’s start in Indy where the Colts are almost a TD favorite over a Raiders team which has been injured and awful on defense.
Add to that; 1-11 in their last 12 on the road ATS and 1-8 straight up on the road under Jon Gruden, but he was the Raiders coach the last time Oakland won in Indy in 2001. Derek Carr hasn’t been terrible, but 3rd down woes and only rushing Josh Jacobs 10 times last week killed them. TY Hilton isn’t 100% and the Colts haven’t won a game by more than 3 pts this season despite Jacoby Brissett brilliance. I’m taking OAKLAND +7 pts to keep it close and get the underdog cover.
We’ve all seen the greatness of Pat Mahomes early in his blossoming career, but believe it or not, he has yet to play a game indoors in the NFL regular season. That spells bad news for a Lions team which is has yet to lose, but could very well be 0-3. Add in the hip injury to Matthew Stafford and I just don’t see this upstart Detroit team being able to stop or even go toe to toe offensively with KC. Andy Reid never loses in September and this is the last Sunday of the month. CHIEFS laying the 7 is a LOCK
The last time we saw the Tennessee Titans, they were stinking it up on TNF. The extra time off should help and playing in Atlanta should help even more. The Falcons are 4 pt favorites in the dome, but losing safety Keanu Neal adds to their defensive woes in the secondary. Atlanta is also 0-12 against the spread against AFC teams, have turned it over 7 times, and I look for the Titans to give the dirty birds trouble TAKE the 4 pts and go with Tennessee.
Finally, the Patriots finally have a divisional opponent who might gave them a contest, but for 3 and 0 Buffalo, they have to play damn near perfect football if they want the Bills Mafia to really go berserk at Orchard Park.
Tom Brady has owned the Bills over the years, but for the first time in a while, Buffalo has a QB who can make plays, a running game that is legit and a defense that can ball! Also, they’ll see a Pats squad that is only 1-5 outright as single digit road favorites and 0-3 outright when favored by 6-9 pts. Bills can pull off the upset, but Josh Allen can’t be throwing picks or fumbling the ball against the best tackling and fundamentally sound team in the league. Can Allen do it? When he has a “clean game” Bills are 4-1. I think the adrenaline will help Buffalo early and if they can stay close in the 4th quarter, Bills can steal it, or at least cover the 7 pt spread. Buffalo with the 7 pts is the play!
-Tony Bruno
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