UFC Fight Night to Feature Edgar vs Munhoz and an oddball card on ESPN
Story of the Card – Edgar vs Munhoz is one of those bizarre cards that MMA gives us from time to time. Are there a lot of big names or matchups with title implications? No. Are there a lot of matchups that could be pretty damn fun? Yes. The Saturday night card has been changed numerous times due to Covid 19 travel complications, last minute injuries, and just general chaos. However, the result is a lineup of fights that presents a lot of betting value. This includes the main event that will see Frankie Edgar take on bantamweight contender Pedro Munhoz. While the co-main event, St Preux vs Menifield, is a light-heavyweight showcase between two very talented but frustratingly flawed fighters. Overall, this should be a wild night and a lot of fun for betting.
UFC Fight Night – The Best Bets for Saturday Night
Marcin Prachnio vs Mike Rodriguez
I’m a sucker for self deprecating nicknames in a sport this macho. So I’ll be rooting for Mike “Slow” Rodriguez when he takes on Marcin Prachnio from Poland in this fight. To be totally frank this fight would not be on the main card at almost any other event. It’s a bizarre matchup in a division that loves to give us bizarre fights.
Prachnio has only fought twice in the UFC in 2 years, and he did not perform well at all in either. This includes his KO loss to Sam Alvey. So, there are a lot of worrying signs coming into this fight for Prachnio.
Mike Rodriguez is a competent well rounded fighter. I see no reason to think he won’t beat Prachnio in this oddball matchup. This pick is equal parts how NOT confident I am in Prachnio and how positive I am in Rodriguez’s ability to beat him. or betting on a KO finish.
The Pick: I”ll take Mike Rodriguez as a big favorite here at -240. It’s at least a good let for a parlay.
Top Prop: I like Rodriguez to win by K0 for +105 at FanDuel.
Number to Know: 743. That’s the number of days that have passed since Marcin Prachnio won a fight and that was in ONE, not in the UFC. Not to pile on the guy, but there are a lot of indications that he could soon be out of the UFC all together.
Takashi Sato Vs Daniel Rodriguez
Takashi Sato vs Daniel Rodriguez should be a great action fight. “Ten” vs “D-Rod” is also a contender for worst nickname battle on the card and a sneaky pick for fight of the night.
This fight should remain on the feet and should be fun for as long as it lasts. I’d say Rodriguez has the power edge but Sato is pretty well rounded on the feet. He has also shown more variety in his striking arsenal to date. I could see Sato using the pace and variety to wear Rodriguez down in a bit of an upset.
This fight could also end early as Rodriguez definitely has knockout power. However if it the fight remains standing for all 3 rounds I like the value of Sato here, utilizing his striking arsenal to steal the decision as Rodriguez slows down a little late. Either way this fight should be a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
The Pick: I’m taking the plus money on Takashi Sato to win in an upset. +145 at Fanduel.
Number to Know: 6.81. That’s the Significant Strikes absorbed per minute for Daniel Rodriguez. To be fair D-Rod lands a large amount of significant strikes per minute as well. However I think his defense has holes in it. He would have to really utilize his takedowns in this one to slow down Sato.
Ovince St Preux vs Alonzo Menifield
Another strange fight on a card that has the fingerprints of a pandemic all over it with late cancellations and last minute replacements. One time Light Heavyweight Title challenger Ovince St Preux will be taking on Alonzo Menifield in something of a gatekeeper vs rising prospect fight.
OSP moved up to heavyweight in his last fight and had a pretty lackluster showing against Ben Rothwell in a split decision loss. He’s now back at Light Heavyweight to face Menifield. Menifield was on a tear with 8 straight stoppage victories before he lost to Devin Clark via decision in his last outing.
This fight looks like it will go one of two ways given the styles involved. Either Menifield will pour it on early and finish OSP, probably via strikes or “club and sub”. Or OSP survives the early onslaught and beats a gassed Menifield. Most likely the latter would happen via submission in the later rounds.
OSP didn’t look chinny up at heavyweight but he is 37. And while Menifield is a powerful striker, he got gassed pretty badly in his last fight after failing to put away Devin Clark. In fact, there’s really no evidence from previous fights that Menifield does well if his opponent can survive the opening round. The longer this goes the more I like OSP’s chances.
The Pick: I’m taking Ovince St Preux to win for +108 at PointsBet.
Top Prop: OSP to win via submission is a good value for +460 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Number to Know: 189 > 46. This the respective minutes spent inside the Octagon for Saint Preux and Menefield, despite both being relatively old fighters. OSP is 37 and Menifield is 32, but there’s a big disparity in cage time here. With two talented but flawed fighters, i’ll lean on experience.
Frankie Edgar vs Pedro Munhoz
The main event is a strange one but Bantamweight bouts are never short on fun. Frankie Edgar takes on Pedro Munhoz in a battle of near contenders. Pedro has been on a hot streak up until his decision loss to Aljamain Sterling. No shame there as Sterling is the rightful next title challenger at 135 lbs.
Edgar is a UFC legend of the sport but is coming off two back to back one-sided losses. Over the course of his career he has been known for freakish cardio and a beautiful integration of his striking and wrestling. Edgar has also been known to be insanely durable, at least until recently. While Munhoz has a slick ground game, terrifying Guillotine, and heavy hands. He’s a well rounded fighter who I think is consistently slept on.
These two fighters are in different stages of their career. The young up and comer Munhoz has only ever lost via decision, and to some of the best fighters in the division. The veteran Edgar, on the other hand, has lost via brutal KO in 2 of his last 4 fights. This is especially concerning considering he had NEVER been finished early before in his previous 27 bouts.
MMA is am incredibly unforgiving sport when it comes to aging legends, and I think this one is over violently and early.
The Pick: Pedro Munhoz to win -245 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top Prop: I’ll take Munhoz by KO +210 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Number to Know: SIX. Thats the number of Guillotine Choke finishes on Pedro Munhoz’s record. While I don’t see him catching Edgar with it. However I do see the threat of Munhoz’s vaunted move being enough to stop Edgar from chaining takedowns together with his strikes as effectively as he usually does. Edgar is tough as hell but I think Munhoz can will keep this one on two feet to finish Edgar.
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